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A possible deal to end Russia’s war against Ukraine will include “land swapping” from both sides, US President Donald Trump said, which in reality means territorial concessions for Ukraine.
Kyiv forces do not occupy any of Russia’s territory, meaning there could be no deal regarding returning Moscow its land.
All of the land in question is the territory Russia has occupied in Ukraine since the first invasion in 2014 followed by Moscow’s all-out war in 2022.
If Trump pressures Ukraine to relinquish its territory, he would not be convincing Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Instead, he will have to persuade the people of Ukraine.
And unlike Trump, Zelenskyy understands who will have the last word, just as he knows that even he cannot convince the Ukrainian people of what they reject.
The country’s civil society demonstrated it well enough, including just weeks ago.
Anton Liagusha, Dean of the Graduate Department of Social Sciences and Humanities at the Kyiv School of Economics, told Euronews that if Ukrainian authorities are pressured into territorial concessions, “it will force the Ukrainian people to take to the streets.”
“This will not so much be a story of protest against the authorities, but a cry from the Ukrainian people to the whole world to be treated as a great country in the centre of Europe, and not just viewed by the US as a piece of land,” Liagusha said.
“Ukrainians are a full-fledged nation, and Ukraine is a great state with its own legislation.”
Liagusha explained that ever since Ukraine became an independent county, the society has clearly established its decisive power when “during the Revolution of Dignity (in 2014), and before that the Orange Revolution (in 2004) and before that the Revolution on Granite in 1991, we saw that people do not accept power in terms of authoritarianism and clear hierarchy.”
“The president in Ukrainian society is not a king, meaning that his will does not determine the will of the entire Ukrainian people,” he pointed out.
‘We all hear what society says’
Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion in early 2022, this balance of power has crystallised even more clearly “when we see in Ukrainian society that almost every family has been affected by this war, directly or indirectly,” according to Liagusha.
“People are fighting against the aggressor, for democracy, and for our country to become a member of the European Union and be part of Europe,” he said.
And so, whatever decisions are made with the participation of the president, it means that these decisions can be confirmed by Ukrainian society through direct street demonstrations.”
This was proven yet again in July when thousands of Ukrainians took to the streets to protest against the bill that could have effectively eliminated the independence of the country’s anti-corruption institutions.
Thousands of Ukrainians demonstrated until Zelenskyy proposed a new bill only days later to restore the independence of the anti-corruption bodies.
Nationwide protests forced the government to overturn the initial bill in a move widely seen as a win for democracy in Ukraine, even during Russia’s all-out war.
Demonstrators made it clear that their anger was directed solely at the bill, and their demands were limited to restoring the independence of anti-corruption bodies.
But after three revolutions in just over 30 years, one of which resulted in ousting the pro-Russian Victor Yanukovich in 2014, Ukrainian presidents and authorities are very sensitive to the voice of the street.
Having signed a new bill, Zelenskyy himself said, “We all hear what society says. We see what people expect from state institutions to ensure justice and the efficiency of each institution.”
Zelenskyy surely knows what to expect from Ukrainian civil society should there be pressure to cede territories. But Ukraine’s foreign partners, specifically the US, do not seem to comprehend it.
When asked why, Liagusha said the reasons can be explained by the level of comfort of life.
“Life in the United States and many European countries is more or less stable and comfortable,” he explained.
“These societies have long lacked experience with large-scale protests and the high level of activity seen in Ukrainian civil society.”
Liagusha also points out that Western democracies primarily view Ukrainian civil society as self-organised groups of people that are created or organised to solve specific tactical problems and issues.
“There is no understanding that the volunteer movement, civil society for the protection of human rights, and activists in various fields are truly such a society and are the creators of the new Ukrainian state.”
