Winter wheat should now be receiving its second application of nitrogen, sugar beet is waiting to be sown and rapeseed is waiting for its last fertiliser application before flowering. March is an extremely important time for agriculture. But now, of all times, fertiliser markets are coming under pressure.
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT
Since the US attacks on Iran at the end of February, the Strait of Hormuz – the strait at the exit of the Persian Gulf through which around a third of the global fertilizer trade passes – has been blocked. Important producer countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar can no longer ship their urea and ammonia supplies as planned.
In addition, the price of gas has risen sharply. The European gas reference price TTF (Title Transfer Facility) rose from around 32 to almost 52 euros per megawatt hour within just a few weeks. This is particularly relevant because natural gas accounts for around 80 per cent of the production costs of nitrogenous mineral fertilizers.
Fertiliser prices are rising significantly
Consequences are already visible on the market. In several German federal states, prices for important nitrogen fertilisers have risen significantly within a few weeks. In Lower Saxony, the price of calcium ammonium nitrate, one of the most widely used nitrogen fertilizers, rose by around 15 per cent within a month. In Schleswig-Holstein, urea cost significantly less before the Iran war than it does today.
The situation is not yet comparable to the extreme values of the 2022 energy crisis, when urea sometimes cost more than 1,000 euros per tonne. Retailers say that supplies for the current season are basically secure. However, the problem currently lies less in the availability of the goods than in the logistics: retailers and hauliers can barely keep up with the processing.
‘You have to do the maths’
Nevertheless, many farms are being hit hard by the price increase. Paul Henschke, who runs his farm in Saxony-Anhalt on 80 hectares as a sideline, was unable to stock up on his requirements in autumn like larger farms. He now has to order at current prices – and realises how tight the calculation has become.
“Urea currently costs 550 euros per tonne net, lime ammonium nitrate around 370 euros,” he says in an interview with Euronews. For his farm, the calculation barely adds up: “For 200 kilos of calcium ammonium nitrate, I already pay 70 euros per hectare – just for the first application of fertilizer.” This does not even include the potash fertilizer.
At the same time, Henschke currently only receives 168 euros per tonne for his feed wheat. Added to this are rising transport costs, which end up directly in the fertilizer price. That doesn’t leave much room for manoeuvre. “You have to do the maths,” he says.
Henschke does not expect a quick political response. “We haven’t heard much movement from agricultural policy yet. It’s very sluggish,” he says. He is not waiting for the state to intervene.
Will there still be any fertiliser at all if Iran escalates?
Dr Willi Kremer-Schillings, known as “Farmer Willi”, who runs his arable farm in the Cologne-Aachen bay area with around 80 percent organic fertilizer such as liquid manure and fermentation residues, reports a similar situation. The increased costs are already having an impact there too. The product itself has become around 40 per cent more expensive, he says – and on top of that, spreading has also become more expensive.
Kremer-Schillings had the foresight to buy his mineral fertilizer in the autumn. However, he now has a more fundamental concern: whether the goods will still be physically available in the event of a further escalation. Even in the coronavirus era, this was the crucial problem – not just the price, but the availability.
He does not expect support either. “I am firmly convinced that the state will do nothing. So far, they’ve almost always just thrown a spanner in the works,” says Kremer-Schillings. He thinks pragmatically: ‘We are entrepreneurs – so let’s do something.” He believes it is inevitable that the increased costs will be reflected in the supermarket at some point – albeit with a delay of two to three months.
Russia is the largest fertilizer supplier in the world
The turbulence caused by the Iran war is also exposing a structural problem that Europe has been dragging around for years: its continued dependence on Russia as a fertilizer supplier. According to the EU Commission, around 22 per cent of EU fertilizer imports in 2025 still came from Russia – worth 1.3 billion euros in the first half of the year alone. Russia exported a total of 45 million tonnes of fertilisers in 2025, making it the world’s largest supplier.
Eastern Europe dependent on Russian fertiliser
Eastern European countries are particularly dependent. Poland – one of the largest agricultural countries in the EU – imported considerable quantities of Russian goods for years, despite its domestic producer Grupa Azoty. The Baltic states and Bulgaria also covered part of their requirements in Russia.
However, traders in Western Europe are also turning to Russian alternatives again when supplies from Qatar and other Gulf states falter. This is also driving up prices, partly because special EU tariffs now apply to Russian and Belarusian fertilizers.
The EU has been levying these special duties on Russian and Belarusian fertilizers since July 2025. In addition to the existing ad valorem duty of 6.5 per cent, there is a staggered volume duty, which is set to increase significantly in the coming years. At the same time, in February 2026, the EU Commission proposed temporarily suspending general tariffs on other countries in order to make it easier to import alternatives from North Africa and the USA.
Tobias Goldschmidt (Greens), Energy Transition and Environment Minister of Schleswig-Holstein, is therefore calling for consequences. He spoke to the German Press Agency in favour of an effective European sanctions regime without a back door. This would reduce dependence on Russia and strengthen Europe’s food sovereignty.
German fertiliser factories dependent on Russian gas
However, Germany is also dependent on Russia due to the consequences of the energy transition. Farmer Henschke soberly describes the structural dilemma: “We have fertilizer plants in Germany, but they are simply being shut down because they can no longer operate economically without Russian gas.” In addition, Russia has been selling its fertiliser for years at prices that European manufacturers simply cannot compete with.
When asked by Euronews, Martin May, Managing Director of the German Agricultural Industry Association (IVA), therefore explicitly warns of the danger of domestic production plants closing permanently – with consequences not only for security of supply, but also for the climate footprint, as European manufacturers produce according to much stricter environmental and climate standards than their Russian competitors.
However, many farmers do not have the luxury of questioning where their fertilizer comes from. Kremer-Schillings says openly: “I buy my fertilizer from the cooperative and they load it onto my trailer. I don’t know where it comes from.” He compares it to medication: Who asks whether their tablet comes from India or China? You need the fertilizer when the fields need it.
Domestic fertiliser production under pressure
For the IVA, this is the real lesson of the crisis. “Strong domestic fertilizer production is the main pillar for security of supply and price stability,” says Managing Director May. German production facilities alone can cover a large part of the domestic demand for mineral fertilisers.
This is precisely why the industry is concerned about political decisions in Europe. May warns that the planned suspension of the CO2 border adjustment mechanism CBAM calls central framework conditions into question and jeopardises the future of European production.
More than just a price shock
The Federation of German Industries (BDI) is also warning of a further dimension to the crisis: the possible loss of sulphur and other raw materials from the Gulf region, which are by-products of natural gas production and are important for fertiliser production. If the escalation in Iran continues, this would not only have consequences for Europe. Food security in Africa and the Middle East could also come under pressure – with potential effects on migration and regional stability.
