Four potential obstacles in House vote to end US shutdown

A spending bill to end the longest-ever government shutdown is heading to the House of Representatives.

The lower chamber of Congress is expected to vote by Wednesday evening on the funding measure.

Unlike in the Senate, if House Republicans stay united, they don’t need any Democrats to pass the budget. But the margin for error is razor thin.

Here are four potential hold-ups for the budget, before it can clear Congress and land on the president’s desk for signing into law.

A key sticking point throughout the shutdown has been a desire on the part of Democrats to attach to the spending bill a renewal of tax credits that make health insurance less expensive for 24 million Americans.

Senate Republicans instead only agreed to grant Democrats a vote in December on whether to extend the subsidies – something they had already offered weeks ago.

And House Speaker Mike Johnson has not committed to allowing a vote in his chamber on the tax credits.

This entails a fair degree of political risk for Republicans, however. If they torpedo the subsidies, health coverage premiums could rocket, handing Democrats a ready-made campaign issue for next year’s midterm elections.

Marjorie Taylor Greene, a conservative Republican congresswoman from Georgia, has broken ranks with President Donald Trump to say she is “disgusted” premiums could double for her own grown-up children. The president said on Monday his ally had “lost her way”.

As the clock ticks down to the subsidies expiring by the end of December, Republicans have not yet finalised their plan.

They want income caps on who can receive the tax credits, and are proposing the tax dollars bypass insurance companies and go straight to individuals – although the details are unclear.

Out of power in Washington, where Trump’s Republicans control the House and Senate, Democrats appeared finally to have some political wind in their sails after a handful of election wins last week in Virginia, New Jersey and New York City.

But those victories, like the shutdown fight, have accentuated strategic tensions between the pragmatic and progressive, or left-wing, factions of the party.

The Democratic left is furious at defectors who voted with Senate Republicans to pass the budget on Monday, seeing this as a capitulation to Trump.

From that wing of the party, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont said giving up the fight was a “horrific mistake”. California Governor Gavin Newsom called it “surrender”.

House Democratic minority leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York told CNN on Tuesday: “We’re strongly opposed as House Democrats to this reckless Republican effort to continue to raise the high cost of living on everyday Americans.”

However, centrist Democrats like Jared Golden of Maine, who recently announced he won’t run for re-election, may cross the aisle.

Another moderate Democrat, Henry Cuellar of Texas, has indicated he may help get the Republicans’ spending plan over the line.

Once a Democratic congresswoman-elect from Arizona is sworn in on Wednesday the Republican majority in the House will be whittled down to five votes – 219-214.

Republicans can only afford to lose two votes to pass the spending plan.

While most House Republicans are expected to support the funding package, given that Trump backs it, fiscal hawks may object.

The proposed deal would leave the federal government on a path to keep adding about $1.8tn (£1.4tn) a year to its $38tn of debt.

Potential Republican defectors Thomas Massie of Kentucky or Victoria Spartz of Indiana have remained tight-lipped so far on how they plan to vote.

But congressman Chip Roy of Texas said he was “unaware of any opposition of significance” to the bill from members of his conservative House Freedom Caucus.

House Speaker Mike Johnson has kept the chamber out of session for the last seven weeks to focus pressure on Senate Democrats to make a shutdown deal.

He has urged lawmakers to return to Washington immediately for the crunch vote.

But members of Congress face the same flight delays that have plagued other Americans during the spending impasse.

With nearly 1,200 flights cancelled on Tuesday as unpaid air traffic controllers call in sick because of the funding deadlock, lawmakers are finding other ways to reach Washington.

Republican congressmen Rick Crawford of Arkansas and Trent Kelly of Mississippi are carpooling to the nation’s capital.

Congressman Derrick Van Orden said he was riding a Harley Davidson motorcycle from his home state of Wisconsin.

Record-cold temperatures and heavy snow have also hit the Great Lakes region in the Midwest, adding to the delays.